On this episode, I'm happy to have Philip Tetlock, author, and professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
He's the co-leader of The Good Judgement Project, which is a multi-year forecasting study. He also wrote the New York Times best-selling book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
In this interview, we dive into the meat and potatoes of what we can do to get better at the art and science of prediction, including:
- What traits and characteristics make one person a more accurate forecaster than another
- The 15 minute exercise that radically improves the average forecaster’s accuracy
- How Philip’s mantra, “Start with the outside and work inside” can prevent you from making incorrect assumptions when making an important decision
- How we can foster open-mindedness in ourselves and other people in our organizations
- What the “Fermi method” is and how it can help flush out your ignorance when wrestling with a problem/li>
- How much of prediction is a learnable skill, and how much is just dumb luck
- How organizations can use Philip’s research to create a culture of creative problem solving (even if it means mistakes are more visible to others)
And much more.